La Nina

 With massive drought across the south and fires, as seen by this satellite animation from CIMMS

From CIMMS -- might have to click to animate -- Satellite image of TX fires

 the last thing that is needed is another La Nina. (La Nina = cooler waters than normal off South American Coast and extending westward in the central Pacific whereas El Nino is the opposite. Maybe another image to explain the difference?

Image courtesy of NOAA

La Nina tends to -- and this is just typical trends and not set in stone for every season -- keep the south warmer and drier.  Winter brings windier conditions and as you can imagine, forecasts of  warm, dry, and windy are not good for a place already dealing by fires.  With that being said, this is just a general idea of what La Nina brings. I could do a 14 page rant on long range and seasonal forecasts. They are rarely very accurate. However, there are some historical trends that are noticeable during La Nina events. For those in drought and dealing with fires, the return of La Nina is the last thing you want to hear.

The latest analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the respective anomalies can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml .