The WRF vs GFS verdict. Who won? You be the judge?

Well, all my previous blogs have led up to this moment. the WRF and GFS from 84 hours away to now have had different scenarios for the surface low. Now, this is not my analysis, done by hand, so there is some subjectivity done by the computer analysis program --- but --- you have to say the GFS was a little "closer" to being right, it would appear!  Meanwhile, this storm is BOMBING and is going to be just amazing as it intensifies over the next 24 hours. Wow!

Would you believe the WRF or the GFS?

Something tells me that a surface low in Kansas vs a surface low in Manitoba will yield some different results! This is the 84 hour forecast from the WRF and the GFS valid 00Z Tuesday. Clearly, a large system is coming into the plains -- that is easily seen on satellite with a jet coming in around 40 degrees latitude. This will be a transitional type system taking us from this continued mild and sunny pattern to a more late fall/early winter type weather. However, it is clear that the models are having an issue with the details (and that is an understatement!!)