Saturday, October 23, 2010

WRF vs GFS: The battle continues. Now we are 72 hours out ..


My previous post detailed this same time period, a forecast valid for 00Z Tuesday (or 7pm Monday night). My previous post showed the GFS and WRF 84 hour forecast. Now, this is 12 hours later (or 12 hours closer to the valid time) and we see the GFS and WRF still having a huge difference in the placement of the surface low. The WRF has moved now a bit further south with it's solution while the GFS kept the surface low a bit further west. There is enough variability run to run among the same model to make those in the Plains get nervous about how to forecast this, but add to that the model-to-model differences and I can only pitty the zone forecaster sitting in the Plains trying to decipher this. Currently analysis leads me to believe the WRF is far more accurate. We shall see! :)

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