Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Pretty bad forecasting

I continue to realize more and more just how hard it is for "regular people" to think highly of meteorologists. I forecast less and less now and thus rely on the forecasting of those who are paid to do so. Generally, I check the Chicago National Weather Service's zones or point forecast for my area.

This weekend was brutally bad ..
Friday July 1st: Forecast of mid to upper 90's with Heat Index Values of 105-110. Thunderstorms formed along the lake keeping the city and most of the metro area in the 70's much of the day with a cool breeze. It finally warmed up towards late afternoon for a high of 89. But, the dewpoints never got that high (in the mid 60's instead of the low 70's) and the heat index was far from bad. A heat warning had been issued the night before but obviously, did not verify.

Saturday July 2nd: No heat warning today. High of "near 90". Result? It was 94 at Midway with a heat index above 100. Kankakee had a heat index of 110! Almost everyone was into the low 90's with heat indexes at or around 100. Painfully hot. Given the bust the day before, the heat on this day was magnified. Heat warning day, cool..non heat warning day, brutally hot.

Sunday was fine ...

Monday July 4th: High in the low 80's, mid 70's near the lake. It was 89 at O'Hare (same as Friday!!) and 90 in many suburban locations. Waukegan, a northern suburb right on the lake, got up to 82! So it was as hot on this day for most people as it was on the heat warning day. Big difference between low 80's and around 90!

Not a good weekend. I heard numerous complains at various places I was at and since I was relying on the same forecasts, I felt their pain.

Do I know how hard it is? Did I used to mess up? Of course. But I get it! I get why people say 'weatherman are always wrong". This weekend was a big weekend for outdoor plans and for the weather service to be this bad? Lets just say it .. "EPIC FAIL". With a Cubs-Sox series, the Taste, Ribfest in Naperville, and the 4th of July all going on, anyone that made plans revolving around a forecast would have been screwed. Luckily, most people have just resigned to this motto.
"It is the weather, you can't control it so just go with it". Simply put, they ignore the forecast and just hope.

I made the mistake of trusting the forecast because I was a part of it so long. Turns out, ignorance IS bliss.

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