Hurricane Irene

Since I last blogged, it became apparent via analysis that Irene would not hit Florida and it appeared to me, as I tweeted on Aug 23rd, that it would likely head northward, and either hit the outer banks of North Carolina or miss the US completely. The models continued to shift east (or to the right) every run. However, I didn't really look to see what Irene would do as it passed North Carolina. Even thought i looked at the 8 day GFS that showed it hitting NYC .... um .. hello Matt. :) So, yeah, now Irene is going northward towards the coast of NC or the outer banks and then will continue to move northward. Right now, the position of the ridge to the northeast of Irene leads one to believe that Irene will head for New England, but light southwesterly flow ahead of a trof in the US might steer it to sea. That appears unlikely, to me, but it wouldn't shock me. Once this thing picks up speed as it gets caught in the mid latitude "westerlies", it will begin to weaken. It already has failed to get to Cat-4 as once forecast by NHC. Shear is just a bit too much and a few eye-wall replacements didn't help matters. It is going over very warm waters so maybe a Cat-3 but then will weaken as it heads to NYC/New England. The Media, on the other hand, is forecasting pure Armageddon. They phrase it as "Irene, a major hurricane packing 115 mph winds is headed for NY". They don't say "but it will weaken considerably before then so won't be a major hurricane". Because the truth is no fun when you need ratings. And, to a point, I get that.
For more info, of course, head to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Here is the latest satellite animated gif, from the University of Wisconsin/CIMMS as well as some derived products.

Animated GIF: Click on the image to animate

Track of Irene: Click to enlarge

Satellite Derived Upper Level Winds: Click to enlarge

I thought about doing a rant on The Weather Channel, the Media, and so many meteorologists relying so heavily on the models. Never-mind that 3 days ago it was supposed to maul Florida via the models and that didn't pan out so why believe the models when they are all gung ho about slamming a huge hurricane into NYC? Why?? Learn your lesson!!  Ok, so I did rant for a second. But, that's it. There is nothing I can do about it. When a lot of mets see the pretty pictures they are wowed by them. They see some depiction of something major going on and are unable to say "fine, but this isn't real". That saddens me. I did a 2 hour analysis w/o the models and said "outer-banks". It wasn't hard!  Notice my post before this. I just glanced at the models and I said "looks bad for the Domincan and Haiti" --- that was wrong. It was all over a Florida hit --- wrong. But when I did the analysis, I said NC and it's spot on. I'm not genius. I'm no superstar. It's called education, practice, and not being lazy. It's called being a meteorologist and NOT a model observer. Anyone can tell me what the models say. What skill is that? Anyone can get excited over every possible doomsday scenario. Big deal. How bout doing some real forecasting and making a decision on what WILL happen!


 Turns out, I couldn't help but rant .. :)

I didn't even proof this post so forgive me for any bad grammar or spelling. I just feel like spitting out some weather thoughts.

One last thing..I do think this will cause problems. North Carolina could get quite a bit of damage, namely the outer-banks. This is a big big hurricane (size wise) and thus can make for a big storm surge. The storm may come in at high tide in Long Island which will make matters worse. Flooding, beach erosion, and a long time of tropical storm force winds (which are not even severe, mind you, but still) will likely cause quite a bit of havoc. And I'm sure some numnuts will try to swim or surf in the water and die. So caution should be taken.

But please, listen to NHC and turn off The Weather Channel. Listen to your local National Weather Service offices and Emergency Mgmt. Turn off the Weather Chanel. Please, oh please, turn off the model happy station and ratings hungry station. You don't need hype. You need level headed forecasting.